Here is where we spotlight recent works that help you get a better idea of what we do at Foresight Intelligence.
Wild Card Analysis of Vaccine Rollout in Indonesia: What Can Go Wrong
The ongoing pandemic has exposed the lack of resilience and preparedness of many governments and businesses in handling global shocks. Though successful vaccine developments give new hopes to citizens and markets impatiently waiting for a return to normality, many unexpected disruptions could still derail even the best-laid plans. One foresight method to anticipate global shocks is a wild card analysis, this methodology is used to identify weak signals and understand key dynamics behind the confluence of events in order to help monitor, prepare and cope when faced with potentially catastrophic events.
Liana Lim Hinch and Adriano Rodari present wild card scenarios on Indonesia's COVID-19 inoculation strategy, illustrating the enormous challenges as the country attempts to put the pandemic behind it. Click here to access the commentary published in Forbes Indonesia.
Wild Cards for the U.S. 2020 General Elections
The COVID-19 pandemic has especially exposed the fragility of our interconnected world, begging the following questions: How do we even begin to anticipate the next global shock? More importantly, how do we make ourselves more resilient to them? One method to anticipate global shocks is the wild card analysis. Wild cards have a low probability of occurring, but if it were to occur it would do so with high impact and speed.
Jessica Fort used the US General Election as a case to illustrate how thinking about wild cards can open new futures. The analysis illustrated wild card scenarios that represent enormous challenges and opportunities for the US and the global arena altogether, in effort to have readers form their own judgements about how to act proactively or build resilience where it may be needed. Click here to read the five wild card scenarios published in the Global Policy Journal.
Digital Europe 2030
In pursuit of a strong, modern Europe which is close to its citizens, how can Europe succeed in the digital era of the future? Alfred Herrhausen Gesellschaft’s “Digital Europe 2030” project asked just this question.
In a series of workshops, organized by Alfred Herrhausen Gesellschaft and designed by Foresight Intelligence, European policy experts and researchers came together and developed exploratory scenarios that focused on the transformation of the public sphere – in the context of Europe’s digital sovereignty. The workshops resulted in three illuminating scenarios for what the digital future Europe of 2030 could look like. Click here to access the full publication that includes detailed explanations of the scenarios and the methodology.
Scenarios for Conflict in the EU’s Neighbourhood
There are many ongoing conflicts in Europe’s neighboring regions, but what developments could lead to high intensity conflicts that result in (even) higher levels of violence and the abandonment of public services in the next 4-5 years?
We designed four scenario workshops that brought together European policy experts and researchers from Europe’s neighbouring regions in order to develop scenarios to anticipate unexpected threatening developments in Europe’s neighbourhoods.
The scenarios developed based around four geographical and thematic areas.
The discussions and scenarios allow not only for a deeper understanding of the ongoing conflicts but are crucial for developing methods to prepare, or even prevent an uncertain future.
Read more about the methodology and sceanrios here.
Format: Research Collaboration
The Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug is an administrative region in the Russian Arctic. Its natural resources made Yamal one of the richest regions in Russia. While the region is home to only half a million people, it produces more than 80% of Russia's natural gas. However, Yamal faces many long-term challenges, as a result from climate change: Sea ice decline, permafrost thaw, coastal erosion as well as water and air pollution threaten people's health and energy infrastructure. Other challenges such as the pace of the global energy transformation, Russia's economic and political developments, as well as international politics make Yamal's long-term future more uncertain.
Under the umbrella of the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (Grant Agreement No 727852), Foresight Intelligence and the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS) brought together scientists, industry representatives, policy makers, and local indigenous communities from the region to co-create comprehensive scenarios for Yamal 2040 and to create innovative ideas for jointly shaping the future of the Region. Find more information on the Blue-Action website.
Global Governance Futures
Format: Intercultural Dialogue
The young professionals of today will be the leaders addressing global governance challenges of tomorrow. Equipping these prospective leaders with the skills to think about complex futures and plan for uncertain developments is one of the main aims of the Global Governance Futures Program (GGF).
For 12 years now and with funding from the Robert Bosch Foundation, the Global Public Policy Institute (GPPi) in collaboration with Foresight Intelligence brings together a global group of up to 30 fellows for a series of workshops over a two year period. Using various strategic foresight methods, each group is tasked with working together to come up with solutions for a potential future global governance challenge which could range from arms control to big data regulation. The participants not only expand their intercultural competencies and hone their complex problem-solving skills; they also become a community that endures well beyond the duration of the programme. Read more about the GGF program at ggfutures.net.
German Labor Market 2030
Format: Foresight Lab
Digitisation is expected to have far-reaching effects on the German labour market. How can the diverse interests at stake in these future developments be comprehensively assessed?
Working with representatives from unions, civil society organisations, start-ups and large digitalization corporations, Bertelsmann Foundation, Stiftung Neue Verantwortung and Foresight Intelligence designed an open, dynamic process to map the many dimensions of a future digitalized German labour market. Over the course of three workshops, scenarios were developed which highlighted the strategic implications of both macro developments in the labour market structure, and micro level changes to specific occupations. The process not only produced a report comprehensively outlining the risks and opportunities of workplace digitalization in the German context, it also resulted in the establishment of lasting networks between participants within the emerging German digital economy. An electronic version of the report is available for dwonload here.
Climateurope Festival 2018
Format: Interactive Conference
Climate change poses one of the greatest challenges humanity has ever faced. Communicating the significance of scientific data on climate change is a large part of this challenge.
Bringing climate scientists together with representatives from climate-sensitive industries, Foresight Intelligence designed an innovative conference format to facilitate a user-centred innovation process. A range of stakeholders including policy planners, wine producers, reinsurance experts and renewable energy producers were given the chance to engage directly with the scientists who produce the climate data they depend so heavily upon. Both groups of participants gained something from this process: Climate scientists learnt how to increase the value of their outputs within the bounds of a streamlined business model, and end-users were able to suggest concrete ways in which to climate services could be made more user-friendly. Have a look at the Climateurope website.
Foresight Intelligence offers tailor-made services to help organisations to make decisions in complex future environments. Whether it is aiding government ministries with strategic policy planning for a specific country or region, or assisting corporations with complex risk discovery and assessment before expanding internationally, Foresight Intelligence offers a customized range of methodologies and formats to meet a wide variety of strategic foresight needs.
Foresight Intelligence empowers organisations to strategically develop their own structures and process in a way that is robust to complex future challenges. Digitalization, corporate restructuring, and pivoting a product to suit an emerging market are just some of the examples of complex organisational development processes that that Foresight Intelligence has successfully helped clients to master.
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